Is the Decline of the West Inevitable?

Summary
There has been a drop in the GDP of western countries and a rise in that of eastern countries. The West will inevitably decline in the future. However, this will probably not happen any time soon as eastern countries are still dependent on the west for trade and employment purposes.

Introduction

Ever since the release of the late Oswald Spengler’s double volume book ‘The Decline of The West’, economists, political thinkers and leaders have been debating if Spengler’s predictions may come true. The West is usually defined as Oceania, North America, Europe and Israel, with the Post-Soviet World and Latin America having the possibility of becoming Western. Although initially regarded as a pessimist, comparison of recent trends in the economic, political and social conditions of the West to that of the east have given rise to a genuine concern about Spengler’s theory of the decline of the West.

Rise of the Rest

Decline and complete downfall of the West are not the same thing. Western power may be declining in relation to other powers but it doesn't mean that the West is no longer powerful. Several economists and political thinkers believe that this is more about the rise of the rest than the decline of the West. However the rise of civilizations such as the Chinese civilization has been highly exaggerated. It is true that these countries have been rising economically at an exponential rate and are also leading to an increase in the GDP of other countries. In 2009, exports to China accounted for over 14% of Taiwan’s GDP and over 10% of South Korea’s [1]. But according roughly half of East Asia’s exports to China are electronic parts, such as semiconductors, transformers, and hard drives, for goods that are eventually exported elsewhere. In these industries, China is not so much an engine of demand as a transmission belt for demand originating elsewhere. The share of parts and components in its imports is, however, falling.

Also, recent statistics show that China’s dependence on the West for oil will increase. From almost 40% a decade ago, it fell to 27% in 2008, according to a recent paper by Soyoung Kim of Seoul National University, as well as Jong-Wha Lee and Cyn-Young Park of the Asian Development Bank. This reflects China’s gradual “transformation from being the world’s factory, toward increasingly being the world’s consumer,” they write In 2004, Chinese oil imports totalled 3.40 million barrels a day (m/bd). Today, the People’s Republic of China consumes approximately 7.85 m/bd. It is estimated that China will increase oil imports to as high as 9.60 m/bd by 2010, 11.40 m/bd by 2015, 13.50 m/bd by 2020, and 16.10 m/bd by 2025[2].

Even demographic trends cannot be used to predict the decline of a civilization. The demographic trends depend highly on the particular circumstances of the age. Birth rates tend to drop when the wealth of a society increases. But wealth is just one of the many, many factors that contribute to birth rates. Most factors are unpredictable as they depend on particular eventualities.

For decades the West has been efficiently exporting considerable amount of their economy to Asia in the form of outsourced advertising and manufacturing jobs as they were considered a waste of their time and energy and seen to be too "blue collar". They have been and still are fixated with "knowledge jobs” i.e PR, lawyers, financial services, management consultants etc. The list goes on. What many people in the West do not seem to realize is that there are different classes of knowledge. The type of knowledge they have chosen to embrace is the temporary kind. The other kind of knowledge, the permanent kind used in manufacturing, i.e electronics, industrial equipment etc relies on mathematics, the laws of physics and so on. This kind of knowledge sticks around and forms the basis for the next layer of more advanced technology. Over a period of time you amass a vast wealth of knowledge that takes decades to build. The West has become one vast army of people who can't actually do anything or create anything. Asia is becoming far wealthier than us. West is declining at an exponential rate and to top it all off - most people in the West don’t even know its happening.

Economic Decline

According to a new report from the AFL-CIO, the average CEO made 343 times more money than the average American did last year[3]. Gas prices reached five dollars per gallon at a gas station in Washington, DC on April 19th, 2011. Over the past 12 months the average price of gasoline in the United States has gone up by about 30%. Due to rising fuel prices, American Airlines lost a staggering $436 million during the first quarter of 2011. There are now about 7.25 million less jobs in America than when the recession began back in 2007[4]. The average American family is having a really tough time right now. Only 45.4% of Americans had a job during 2010. The last time the employment level was that low was back in 1983. Only 66.8% of Americans men had a job last year. That was the lowest level that has ever been recorded in all of U.S. history. These are just some of the many signs of the economic decline in the U.S.

European countries are also suffering from similar problems. The EU should try to work towards a stronger economy. The only way to achieve this is by finally relieving the citizens of Europe of the crushing tax burden and horrible wealth destructing bureaucracy that is the EU. Also, the European welfare state has undermined society a great deal. It would do European civilization a great service to make their people self-reliant again. Mr Moisi's alarmism is just the typical outcry of the European intellectual. However he may be one of the many people who try to raise pulses with unsubstantiated claims about reality, by which they safeguard the demand for their prophecies.

The fact that the West has produced so many different forms of technology is no longer an indicator of success. Perhaps they reached what could be considered an economic peak - there is nowhere left for them to go but down, despite their technological ability, in which even the Aztecs were also pretty adept, and history suggests that this is what's going to happen though of course, there are exceptions.. Other factors which are more indicative of decline, such as religion, economics and identity are still slowing down. Fukuyama's end of history is also no longer possible, because of the change in world order since the end of the cold war and the growth of power of China, Iran, Pakistan and other Eastern states. Therefore the spread of liberal democracy and western values no longer being possible, the West’s chances of becoming a global civilization has decreased dramatically.

The West is the only civilization without a coherent religion, even though majority of them are Christian, there are so many different identities within the West that it is impossible for us to adhere to one true identity and this is another problem with the success of the West as a civilization - without a true identity, they will pretty much fall to pieces, as history on several occasions has proven.

Conclusion

Every civilization falls into decline at some point. The West is in no way unique. Globalization has happened before (Rome) and Rome still fell. There are still many alternatives to the West as a hegemonic civilization. The West just like any other civilization will fall - eventually. Not necessarily any time soon. The death of the West is, effectively, inevitable - even with the theories of Western globalization being a universal one, it will fall into decline, if it hasn't already. This doesn't necessarily mean it will be replaced by China. However, the civilizations that make the most noise are the ones which are not such a great threat which in this case includes China, India and even Iran.

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[1]Daniel H. Rosen, Zhi Wang, ‘The Implications of China-Taiwan Economic Liberalization’  (Peterson Institute For International Economics, 2010) p. 69

[2] http://www.ensec.org/index.php?view=article&catid=96%3Acontent&id=197%3Achinas-oil-supply-dependence&tmpl=component&print=1&page=&option=com_content&Itemid=345

[3] Jennifer Liberto, CEOs earn 343 times more than typical workers (CNNMoney, April 20, 2011)

[4] Mortimer B. Zuckerman  Why the Jobs Situation Is Worse Than It Looks (June 20, 2011), U.S.News.com